Lead-time distribution
Also known as Lead time spread, Lead-time histogram
Definition
A lead-time distribution shows how elapsed time varies from the chosen demand boundary to the chosen completion boundary. It describes the range and frequency of outcomes rather than one representative average.
Preserve the long tail
A lead-time distribution shows what individual requests experience from a chosen intake event to completion. The median may describe a routine item, while the tail reveals work that waits for decisions, dependencies, or unusual controls. Both are useful for different decisions.
A concrete example
An illustrative set has 18 items finishing in two to five days and two finishing in 24 days. The average is pulled upward, but the distribution tells a richer story: most work is routine, while a small group may reveal a recurring constraint or a distinct service class.
Use percentiles and examples
Report the boundaries, population, and percentile method. Inspect the items above the service expectation and classify their causes. Do not remove long items simply to make the chart look more predictable.
Limitations
Mixed work classes make a distribution hard to interpret. Lead time also depends heavily on the intake boundary. Changing the boundary changes the result, even when the delivery process did not change.
How this relates to Weave
Weave can help teams explore delivery timing and the change records behind long lead times. It should be paired with the work system that defines intake and completion, because repository events may cover only part of an end-to-end lead time.
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